Ipsos MORI have released their latest political monitor. Opinion polls have been very limited since the General Election. This may be partly influenced by investigations that are being made by polling companies to understand why they failed to accurately predict the election. The poll results are

Con 37%

Lab 31%

Lib Dem 10%


This compares with a performance for the party of 7.9 % in the General Election. These results reflect recent local by-elections which show a marked fall in support for UKIP and a rise in Lib Dem support. It appears that exiting an unpopular coalition position has caused this rise in support. Given the importance for the party of being at least the third party to run squeeze messages in the maximum possible number of seats this could be a significant change. It also raises the chance of the party catching protest votes in this cycle.